What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls

Saturday, May 19, 2012

Unlike four years ago, Barack Obama now has a record to run on – and run against. The economy, the health care law, bailouts, stimulus spending, the changes from the so-called Arab Spring and much more will be hot topics of discussion in the months ahead.

Right now, Republican challenger Mitt Romney and the president are closely matched in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll, but improving economic perceptions would cheer the Obama camp. “Forget same-sex marriage and the host of other buzz issues,” Scott Rasmussen argues in his latest syndicated column.   “If the economy improves, Obama will be reelected. If it gets worse, he will lose.”

Democrats regard North Carolina as so important to the president’s reelection that they are holding their national convention there this summer. However, Romney has moved out to an eight-point lead over Obama in the Tar Heel State.  More predictably, Romney still posts a double-digit lead over the president in GOP-friendly Nebraska. 

Voters now trust Romney more than the president on the economy and all five major issues regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports. Yet while voters trust Romney’s economic judgment more, they continue to have a lot more confidence in themselves than in either presidential contender when it comes to the economic issues facing the nation. 

After all, just 28% now think the country is heading in the right direction. Sixty-five percent (65%) continue to believe the country is heading down the wrong track. 

The government’s a big reason for the problems as far as many are concerned. Americans remain overwhelmingly concerned about inflation, for example, and say they are paying more for groceries than they were a year ago.  So it’s no surprise that they continue to lack confidence in the Federal Reserve Board’s ability to keep inflation down. 

Meanwhile, the majority of voters still supports repeal of the president’s national health care law, and belief that repeal would be good for the economy has edged up to its highest level since late 2010. 

For years, most have believed that reduced government spending in general is good for the economy. Now, 57% of voters favor a law that would limit government spending so it could grow only enough to cover population growth and inflation. Spending growth has exceeded that level every year but one since 1965.

At the same time, voters are looking more favorably on the bailouts of Big Three automakers General Motors and Chrysler.   Forty-seven percent (47%) believe the auto industry bailouts were good for America, the highest level measured since they were approved in 2008 and 2009. Nearly as many (43%), however, still see the auto bailouts as bad for the country. Most voters continue to have a sour view of the bailouts of the U.S. financial sector.

Despite those bailouts, only 50% of Americans now are at least somewhat confident in the stability of the U.S. banking system. Forty-seven percent (47%) are not. While confidence is at its highest level in over a year, it’s important to note that in July 2008 just before the Wall Street meltdown, 68% were confident in the banking system, and only 28% were not.

Wall Street banks are once again drawing national criticism due to JPMorgan Chase’s $2 billion loss from high-risk trades. Yet while Americans believe the federal government is doing a poor job keeping an eye on the banking industry, most still aren’t convinced more regulations are needed.

No more bailouts either: Americans feel more strongly than ever that no bank is “too big to fail.” Seventy-one percent (71%) say the government should let troubled banks, even ones as big as JPMorgan Chase, go out of business rather than find a way to keep them going. That’s up 15 points from 56% in July 2010.

Voters say “leave the taxpayer out of it,” Scott Rasmussen explains in a new radio update. If JPMorgan Chase loses big money, shareholders should suffer; executives should lose bonuses and, in some cases, their jobs as far as voters are concerned. But it’s not the taxpayer’s problem. [Scott is now doing three Rasmussen Report radio updates every weekday, syndicated nationally by the WOR Radio Network. Check out this week’s radio updates here.] 

Of course, there’s a wide difference of opinion between the Political Class which thinks the bailouts were great and Mainstream voters who disagree. The divide between voters and the Political Class is the central theme of  Scott’s New York Times bestselling book, The People's Money: How the American People Will Balance the Budget and Eliminate the Federal Debt .  He contends that voters are ready to support the kind of long-term thoughtful changes needed to balance the budget and eliminate the federal debt. The only thing standing in the way is a Political Class committed to defending the status quo.

As for the bailout money handed out already, most Americans think Wall Street benefited more than the average taxpayer. More Americans than ever (71%) also feel the government has not done enough to hunt down potential criminal activity on Wall Street. 

On the personal finances front, more Americans than ever (40%) now say they're less in debt than they were this time last year. 

The housing market continues to struggle. Homeowner sentiments about the future of their homes' values remained fairly steady this month at pretty dismal levels. Just 20% believe their home will go up in value this year while 24% expect a decline. Longer term, only 47% believe their home will increase in value over the next five years.

Confidence as measured by the Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes was up at week’s end. While 37% of consumers believe the economy is getting better these days, 46% still think it is getting worse. Among investors, 39% believe the economy is getting better, but 44% disagree and say it is getting worse.

Looking overseas, most voters don’t expect the new governments emerging from the Arab Spring to become peaceful and democratic any time soon. Sixty-three percent (63%) believe there is a conflict in the world today between Western civilization and Islamic nations, but most also think the United States should leave the Islamic world alone. 

Republicans hold a seven-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, May 12. The GOP has led on the ballot every week but one since June 2009.

In one of this year’s marquee contests, State Senator Deb Fischer holds an 18-point lead over Democrat Bob Kerrey – 56% to 38% - in the first Rasmussen Reports survey of the Nebraska U.S. Senate race since her upset win in this week’s state Republican primary.

In other surveys last week:

-- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Speaker John Boehner are the leaders of their respective legislative chambers, but neither rates very high in the estimation of voters. 

-- The American Civil Liberties Union on behalf of a group of Muslim Americans is challenging the constitutionality of one of the government’s chief anti-terrorism tools, the no-fly list at airports. Voters strongly support use of a no-fly list, but most also recognize that it may violate the rights of some Americans. 

-- Fifty-six percent (56%) of voters nationwide favor legalizing and regulating marijuana similar to the way alcohol and tobacco cigarettes are currently regulated. Most also don’t believe it should be a crime for people to smoke marijuana in the privacy of their own homes. Most voters favor the legalization of marijuana if it’s sold only by pharmacies but think such a move is unlikely to reduce use of the drug by people under 18. 

-- Support for building more nuclear plants in the United States is still below where it was prior to last year's nuclear plant disaster in Japan. But voters are less enthusiastic about eliminating existing plants in this country.

-- In the first Rasmussen Reports survey since their primary wins last week, Republican Pat McCrory reaches the 50% level of support against Lieutenant Governor Walter Dalton in North Carolina’s 2012 gubernatorial contest. 

-- Positive ratings for the U.S. Supreme Court are down slightly from last month when they jumped following the highly publicized hearings on the constitutionality of the national health care law. However, voters still view the court more positively than they did for most of 2011.

-- Most Americans planned to honor their mothers last Sunday with an in-person visit, but only one-in-four of all adults (27%) consider Mother’s Day one of the country’s most important holidays. 

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A Wall Street Journal profile called Scott Rasmussen "America's Insurgent Pollster." The Washington Post described him as "a driving force in American politics."  If you'd like Scott to speak at your conference or event, contact Premiere Speakers Bureau.

Remember, if it's in the news, it's in our polls.